2014年亞洲商業市場預測:交易減少
Asia's 2014 Commercial Market Forecast: Deals Dwindling
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由谷歌翻譯提供技術支持


隨著人們對全球經濟復甦的信心增強,商業房地產的逢低買入機會開始消失。這是因為隨著機構投資者,養老基金和主權財富基金再次進入競爭或擴大其購買計劃,競爭日益激烈。

投資者和經紀人建議,在市場從全球金融危機中完全恢復之前,買家必須在未來一年迅速採取行動,以捕獲剩餘的有吸引力的交易。預計交易量將在2014年接近危機前的水平,債務可更自由地獲得使用,而股票市場將再次營業。

根據經紀公司DTZ的公允價值指數,在全球範圍內,進入2014年的“最熱”,最有價值的市場是舊金山辦事處,東京辦事處-一個穩定的市場,受歲入的“安倍經濟學”的樂觀和政府支出的支撐方案-和柏林零售。紐約辦公空間,洛杉磯工業區和新加坡工業區也被評為最熱門的選擇。

紐約工業,倫敦辦公空間和悉尼辦公空間的價值中等。巴黎市中心的辦公空間和香港是最冷的市場,但價值最差。

亞洲房地產市場從未遭受過西方所見證的那種下跌,或遭受了短暫的挫折。該地區還看到了一些世界上最大的主權財富基金的強勁跨境活動,例如規模為2850億美元的新加坡政府投資公司(現簡稱為GIC Private)和規模為5750億美元的中國投資公司的養老基金。來自韓國,澳大利亞和馬來西亞的參與者也活躍於亞洲國內外。

這些機構有望在明年繼續投入資金。仲量聯行(Jones Lang LaSalle)的數據顯示,2014年亞洲對商業地產的直接投資水平有望達到1300億美元,高於今年的1200億美元,並使交易量回到了全球金融危機之前的水平。

經紀公司亞太資本市場負責人斯圖爾特•克羅(Stuart Crow)表示:“我們將看到投資者為尋求更高的收益率而進一步使風險曲線進一步上升,從而增加了對機會市場和另類市場如越南和印度尼西亞的資本流入,”

擁有世界上最昂貴的辦公空間的香港和新加坡等市場,對許多市場觀察家來說都是頭等大事。由於金融機構,特別是投資銀行的持續裁員和成本削減,香港中部地區的辦公空間一直落後於倫敦市中心,僅次於倫敦,為每年每平方英尺182美元,在全球排名第二。在穩定之前,租金在2013年下降了約20%以上,並將在明年保持穩定。萊坊預測,明年房價和租金都將下降5%。

出乎意料的是,印尼今年已實現大幅增長。根據萊坊(Knight Frank)的數據,雅加達的辦公物業租金漲幅是全球最高的,在過去一年中增長了驚人的85.6%,達到每平方英尺每年50.28美元。收益的增長是由國內消費的蓬勃發展推動的,辦公室庫存量也很小,導致對投資級房地產的爭奪。

然而,當市場對美聯儲削減資產購買計劃的前景感到不安時,印尼盾受到了打擊。鑑於大量在建工程以及印尼強勁的經濟增長放緩,租金可能會減慢這種驚人的步伐,在亞洲主要國家中僅次於中國。

美聯儲的“漸減”可能導致新興市場資金流出,新興市場貨幣波動,美元走強以及美國債券收益率上升。這可能會導致印度尼西亞和印度的顛簸之旅,當“錐形談話”出現時,它們的貨幣下跌了超過20%,然後才恢復。

預計明年日本的經濟增長率將達到1.7%-亞洲高度修訂的標準不會給中國帶來太大的動盪,但在經歷了長達20年的通貨緊縮的經濟中,日本的增長將非常重要。由於對安倍經濟學的樂觀態度,東京辦公空間的租金每年上漲25.2%,達到每平方米每年82.1美元。但它們仍比2008年初的峰值低40%,並希望早日進入長期上升期。

該國贏得了2020年奧運會的大力支持,以及在2011年地震和海嘯後進行的建築改進以增強災難準備能力,這給投資者和業主帶來了升級B級和C級建築的強烈動力。這樣的增值交易並非沒有風險,而是會導致租金大幅增加和資本增值,在這個市場中,主要的日本公司和房東擁有首都中部五個區中許多最好的建築物。

香港是世界上最昂貴的零售市場,將繼續特別吸引奢侈品牌,這些奢侈品牌願意為以進入利潤豐厚的內地市場為切入點的旗艦店付出高昂的代價。香港的經濟增長相當不錯,達到3%,但香港也受到中國內地消費者的推動,今年增長了7.5%,並有望在2014年實現增長。

在2013年期間,中國鞏固了其作為全球最大房地產資本來源之一的地位,並為美國,英國和澳大利亞等國家的開發商進行了一系列重大交易。在採取了四年以上的緊縮措施以控制中國的房地產價格之後,很明顯,中國的房地產公司將目光投向了海外擴張,以此作為多元化戰略。

12月中旬,總部位於上海的格陵蘭控股集團(Greenland Holding Group)表示,將在韓國度假勝地濟州島上建設價值10億美元的雙塔酒店,零售和公寓開發項目,以恢復由於缺乏房地產而停滯了四年的開發項目資金,用於建造61層和63層的塔樓。

格陵蘭現在已承諾向海外項目投入100億美元,購買了紐約,洛杉磯和悉尼的項目。就其本身而言,按銷售額計算,中國最大的開發商万科中國已經搬到了舊金山,香港和新加坡。這類投資可能只會加快步伐,中國開發商也渴望從合資夥伴那裡學習國際標準。


As confidence in the global economic recovery strengthens, bargain-hunting opportunities in commercial real estate are starting to fade. That's because there is increasing competition as institutional investors, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds once again enter the fray or expand their purchasing plans. 

Investors and brokers suggest that buyers must act fast in the year ahead to capture the remaining attractive deals before markets recover fully from the global financial crisis. The level of deals is expected to approach pre-crisis levels in 2014, with debt more freely available and the equity markets open for business again.

Globally, the "hottest," best-value markets heading into 2014, according to the brokerage DTZ's fair value index, are San Francisco offices, Tokyo offices - a stable market buoyed by the optimism and government spending of the year-old "Abenomics" scheme - and Berlin retail. New York office space, Los Angeles industrial and Singapore industrial also rated among the hottest picks.

The value for New York industrial, London office space and Sydney office space is middling. Central Paris office space and Hong Kong are the coolest markets with the worst value. 

Asian real estate markets never suffered the kind of dropoff witnessed in the West, or had short setbacks. The region has also seen strong cross-border activity from some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, such as the $285 billion Government Investment Corp. of Singapore - now known simply as GIC Private -- and the $575 billion China Investment Corp. Pension funds from Korea, Australia and Malaysia have also been active both in and outside Asia.

Those institutions are expected to continue putting money to work next year. In Asia, the level of direct investment into commercial property looks set to hit $130 billion in 2014, according to Jones Lang LaSalle, up from $120 billion this year, and bringing transaction volumes back to levels last seen before the global financial crisis.

"We will see investors move further up the risk curve in search of higher yield, increasing capital inflows into opportunistic and alternative markets such as Vietnam and Indonesia," Stuart Crow, the brokerage's head of Asia Pacific capital markets, says.

Markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore, with some of the world's most expensive office space, look toppy to many market watchers. Office space in Hong Kong's Central district, the second-most expensive in the world behind central London at $182 per square foot per year, has been lagging as a result of continued layoffs and cost cutting by financial institutions, investment banks in particular. Rents fell some 20-plus percent going into 2013 before stabilizing, and will hold steady at best next year. Knight Frank predicts a decline of up to five percent both for values and rents next year. 

Somewhat surprisingly, Indonesia has posted outsize gains this year. Office property in Jakarta has shown the greatest rental growth in the world, up an eye-popping 85.6 percent in the last year, to $50.28 per square foot per year, according to Knight Frank. The gains have been driven by booming domestic consumption, with the pool of office stock also very small, leading to a scramble for investment-grade property.

However, the Indonesian currency took a bashing when markets were spooked by the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting back its asset-purchase program. Rents are likely to slow that breakneck pace given the large number of buildings in the works and a slowdown in Indonesia's strong economic growth, second only to China among major Asian nations. 

Fed "tapering" is likely to lead to an outflow of money from emerging markets and volatile emerging-market currencies, a stronger U.S. dollar and higher bond yields in the United States. That could lead to bumpy rides in Indonesia and India, which saw currency drops of more than 20 percent when "taper talk" emerged, before recovering. 

Japanese growth is forecast at 1.7 percent next year - no great shakes by Asia's highly revved standards but highly significant in an economy that's suffered more than two decades of deflation. Tokyo office space is renting for prices that are up 25.2 percent per year, at $82.1 per square meter per year, thanks to optimism over Abenomics. But they still remain 40 percent below their peak at the start of 2008, and look to be early into an extended upswing. 

The boost from the country winning the 2020 Olympics, as well as building improvements to enhance disaster readiness after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, give investors and landlords a strong incentive to upgrade B and C grade buildings. Such value-add deals are not without risk but can result in significant rent and capital-value increases, in a market where major Japanese corporations and landlords own many of the best buildings in the five central wards of the capital. 

Hong Kong, the world's most expensive retail market, continues to lure luxury brands in particular, which are willing to pay over the odds for flagship stores designed as entry points into the lucrative mainland market. Economic growth is decent, at three percent in the city, but Hong Kong is also driven by consumers from mainland China, growing at 7.5 percent this year and expected to match that in 2014.

China cemented its role as one of the world's biggest sources of real-estate capital over the course of 2013, with a flurry of major deals for developers in countries such as the United States, Britain and Australia. After more than four years of austerity measures designed to rein in property prices in China, it's clear Chinese property companies have set their sights on overseas expansion as a diversification strategy.

In mid-December, the Shanghai-based Greenland Holding Group said it would build a $1 billion twin-tower hotel, retail and condo development on the Korean resort island of Jeju, reviving a development that had stalled for four years thanks to a lack of funding, to build towers of 61 and 63 floors.

Greenland has now committed $10 billion to overseas projects, buying projects in New York, Los Angeles and Sydney. For its part, China Vanke, the country's largest developer by sales, has moved into San Francisco, Hong Kong and Singapore. Those kind of investments are only likely to pick up pace, with Chinese developers also keen to learn international standards from joint venture partners. 

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