市場報告:雅加達,亞洲最熱門的市場
Market Report: Jakarta, Asia's Hottest Market
原文 譯文

由谷歌翻譯提供技術支持


隨著中國經濟增長放緩以及該國試圖進行棘手的經濟結構調整,印尼正成為亞洲房地產投資者的首選第二選擇。經濟學家的預測顯示,中國的6%增長率與中國的7.5%差距不遠,明年兩種增長率很可能會接近。

根據萊坊的全球主要城市指數,雅加達住宅物業一直是主要的受益者,其高端房屋已連續九個月引領全球價格上漲。與去年同期相比,第二季度末的房價上漲了27.2%,遠高於排在第二位的迪拜的21.6%。

印尼首都的辦公物業在百分比增長方面也領先於亞洲。根據仲量聯行(Jones Lang LaSalle)的亞太辦公室指數,第二季度的資本價值比前三個月增長了10.2%。與2012年同期相比,收益增長了驚人的46.4%。

這導致租金上漲,雅加達第二季度的9.8%漲幅再次領先亞洲。仲量聯行(Jones Lang LaSalle)將租金上漲歸因於潛在的強勁需求和缺乏優質辦公空間。不過,辦公室租金仍然是該地區最便宜的,相當於每年每平方米309美元,與香港的1,486美元相去甚遠。

建築和工程公司Aecom在8月中旬發布了一份報告,指出“也許令人驚訝”,雅加達是潛在市場增長和盈利能力最高的城市。與印尼首都相比,中國城市在這些方面得分較低。

房價的快速上漲導致中央銀行在7月收緊了貸款規則。印度尼西亞銀行將最低首付比例提高至第二套住房購買價格的40%,第三套住房購買價格的50%,高於之前的30%的門檻。

鑑於最近新興市場的動盪,能否維持房地產價值的強勁增長還有待觀察。隨著美國經濟的複蘇,雅加達的股市受到了美國投資者匯回資金的傷害。在八月份下跌之後,雅加達市場在三個月內下跌了23%。

這場動盪使一些市場觀察家將其與1997年的亞洲金融危機進行了比較。印度尼西亞的短期債務幾乎等於其外匯儲備的90%,亞洲和中東首席投資官Gary Dugan銀行Coutts指出。這使得印尼政府很難忍受貨幣貶值,而又不被要求更積極地提高利率或採取措施阻止資本外流。

印尼央行在8月15日的會議上將利率維持在6.5%不變,而到目前為止,今年僅將利率提高了75個基點。政府預測明年的經濟增長率將在6.4%至6.8%之間,與中國目前的增長率相差不遠。但是,如果印尼央行被迫大幅提高利率,這可能會低於該預期,這將有助於吸引海外投資並穩定印尼盾。

儘管如此,杜甘仍然看不到1997年的重演,當時亞洲各國中央銀行為自己的貨幣辯護,以至於這些努力失敗後導致了大規模的衰退。信用隨後消失。這次圍繞央行行長,他們沒有立場捍衛本國貨幣。亞洲國家所欠外國債權人的債務水平也遠低於1997年,當時其本國貨幣崩潰,以美元計算其債務猛增。

評級機構標準普爾(Standard&Poor's)表示,印尼是東南亞唯一一個前景樂觀的房地產市場,今年第一季度末的一份報告稱。分析師克里斯托弗·李(Christopher Lee)和貝夫(Bai Fu)寫道,市場“將受益於持續的經濟增長,低抵押貸款利率,家庭收入的增加和城市化的發展。 “基礎設施的改善可能會刺激房地產開發,而公寓銷售已證明具有彈性,而房地產銷售強勁。”

儘管標準普爾(S&P)預計過去12個月的漲勢不會持續,但這可能會導致房地產價格持續上漲。該機構說,房地產開發商將發現2013年又是一個豐收年,但他們將在平衡增長與金融紀律之間面臨越來越大的挑戰,因為土地價格上漲將使維持健康的土地儲備和開發房地產管道更加困難。


亞洲辦公市場

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As China's growth slows and the country attempts a tricky economic restructuring, Indonesia is proving a popular second choice for real-estate investors in Asia. Its 6 percent growth rate is not far off China's 7.5 percent, and the two rates are likely to come closer next year, according to economist's forecasts.

Jakarta residential property has been a prime beneficiary, and its high-end homes have led the world in price gains for nine months in a row, according to Knight Frank's Prime Global Cities Index. Home prices were 27.2 percent higher at the end of the second quarter, compared with a year ago, well ahead of second-placed Dubai's 21.6 percent.

The Indonesian capital's office property is also leading Asia in percentage-gain terms. Capital values rose 10.2 percent in the second quarter, compared to the prior three months, according to Jones Lang LaSalle's Asia Pacific Office Index. The gain is an eye-popping 46.4 percent, compared with the same time in 2012.

That is feeding into higher rents, with Jakarta's 9.8 percent gain in the second quarter again leading Asia. Jones Lang LaSalle attributed the rise in rents to strong underlying demand and a lack of high-quality office space. Office rents are still some of the cheapest in the region, though, equating to US$309 per square meter per year, a far cry from Hong Kong's US$1,486 rate.

The architecture and engineering company Aecom put out a report in mid-August stating that Jakarta, "perhaps surprisingly," is the top-rated city for both potential market growth and profitability. Chinese cities scored poorly on those fronts when compared with the Indonesian capital.

The rapid advance of home prices led to the central bank tightening lending rules in July. Bank Indonesia raised the minimum down payment to 40 percent of the purchase price for second homes, and to 50 percent on third homes, up from the previous 30 percent threshold.

It remains to be seen if the strong gains in property values can be sustained, given the recent volatility in emerging markets. Jakarta's stock market has been hurt by U.S. investors repatriating money as the United States economy recovers. After declines in August, the Jakarta market is looking at a 23 percent fall over three months.

The tumult has led some market watchers to draw comparisons with the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Indonesia's short-term obligations are equal to almost 90 percent of its foreign-exchange reserves, Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East at the bank Coutts noted. That makes it very hard for the Indonesian government to endure currency deprecation without being required to raise interest rates more aggressively, or put measures in place to impede capital outflows.

Indonesia's central bank left interest rates unchanged at 6.5 percent on its August 15 meeting, and has so far only raised them by 75 basis points this year. The government has forecast economic growth of 6.4 percent to 6.8 percent next year, not far behind China's current rate. But Indonesia may fall short of that prediction if the central bank is forced to raise interest rates more significantly, which would help attract overseas investment and stabilize the Indonesian rupiah.

Still, Dugan does not see any repeat of 1997, when Asian central banks defended their currencies to the point that massive recessions resulted after those efforts failed. Credit subsequently evaporated. This time around central bankers are making no stand to defend their currencies. Asian nations also have far lower levels of debt owed to foreign creditors than in 1997, when their debts skyrocketed in U.S. dollar terms as their home currencies crumbled.

The rating agency Standard & Poor's said Indonesia was the only property market in Southeast Asia with a positive outlook, in a report at the end of the first quarter of this year. The market "will benefit from continuing economic growth, low mortgage rates, increasing household incomes and growing urbanisation," analysts Christopher Lee and Bei Fu wrote. "Infrastructure improvements are likely to spur property development, while condominium sales have proved resilient and property sales are strong."

That is likely to feed into continued gains in property prices, although S&P doesn't expect the heady pace of the last 12 months to continue. Property developers will find 2013 another good year, the agency said, but they will increasingly face a challenge in balancing growth with financial discipline, since rising land prices will make it harder to maintain healthy land banks and pipelines of development property.


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