2015年歐洲房地產貸款銷售預測為700億歐元
€70 Billion of European Real Estate Loan Sales Forecasted for 2015
原文 譯文

由谷歌翻譯提供技術支持


根據高緯環球(Cushman&Wakefield)的《 歐洲房地產貸款銷售市場報告》 ,2015年第一季度,歐洲商業房地產貸款和房地產自有交易的總成交額為122億歐元。

整個歐洲的活動都以意大利的銷售為特徵。正如預期的那樣,意大利在2015年初的交易活動顯著增加,已記錄的已完成交易超過10億歐元。從總體上看,這一總額超過了2014年全年記錄的2.5倍,使意大利成為2015年第一季度完成交易額排名第三的歐洲國家。

在經歷了創紀錄的2014年之後,上一季度的整體業績較2014年第一季度和2014年第四季度下降了49%。然而,這重申了IBRC,NAMA的去槓桿化在2014年見證的驚人水平和蘇格蘭皇家銀行。

更具說服力的統計數據是,2015年第一季度的數字約佔2012年全年交易總量的53%,這突顯了歐洲CRE貸款和REO銷售市場在過去三到四年中的發展顯著。 2012年僅完成了232億歐元的交易,在英國,愛爾蘭,西班牙和德國的四個主要市場之外幾乎沒有記錄到任何交易,而且只有七筆“大型交易”(這些交易的面值超過10億歐元) )完成。從那以後,不僅活動水平顯著提高,而且投放市場的產品的地理和類型也顯著擴大。

儘管英國和愛爾蘭合計佔2015年第一季度銷售額的近三分之二,但與2014年第四季度的數據相比,已完成交易量分別減少了47%和68%。這再次表明,2014年比前一年更好。正如高緯環球(Cushman&Wakefield)在2014年第4季度歐洲房地產貸款銷售市場報告中所預測的那樣,這一下降是許多英國和愛爾蘭銀行以及資產管理機構(例如IBRC,RBS和Lloyds Banking Group)的結果,它們在2014年。儘管有跡象表明這些領先市場的活動有所放緩,但包括NAMA在內的幾家主要供應商仍有大量的非核心房地產業務尚待解決。

2015年第一季度發生了幾筆大交易,這有助於增加交易量,其中包括永久性TSB,該交易完成了其資本住房貸款服務平台的出售以及向Cerberus的35億歐元相關住宅貸款。此外,為彌補去年十月AQR業績後的資金短缺,該公司還最終將其10億歐元和5億歐元的愛爾蘭CRE貸款組合(分別稱為萊因斯特計劃和芒斯特計劃)出售給了Haybell Limited。 ,據信由德意志銀行和阿波羅出資成立的新實體。

高緯環球(Cushman&Wakefield)歐洲,中東和非洲地區貸款銷售負責人Federico Montero說:“儘管已完成的交易量比2014年的記錄略有下降,但仍在為市場準備大量的大宗交易,這將促進下半年的交易活動。正如預期的那樣,我們已經看到來自意大利的銷售量顯著增加,意大利是第一季度歐洲第三大活躍國家。”

高緯環球(Cushman&Wakefield)歐洲,中東和非洲(EMEA)企業融資小組執行主席弗蘭克·尼克爾(Frank Nickel)也評論說:“自市場崩潰以來,英國和愛爾蘭的供應商無疑在去槓桿化週期中處於領先地位,為整個歐洲的銀行和資產管理機構樹立了榜樣隨著許多人接近完成自己的鍛煉策略,西班牙和意大利等國也有機會挺身而出,吸引來自美國的大量投資者興趣。”

根據對主要供應商的了解以及預期的市場趨勢,高緯環球預計2015年的銷售額將達到60-700億歐元。

該報告的其他重點包括:

  • 隨著不良貸款的早期投資者開始用已完成的投資組合“兌現”,進入市場的二級銷售數量顯著增加。
  • 由於在2015年第一季度完成的“大型交易”減少,前五名投資者佔第一季度已完成交易量的69%。
  • 永久TSB迄今為止是市場上最活躍的供應商,僅佔其已完成交易的41%,以彌補去年10月AQR強調的資金短缺;
  • 儘管今年年初相對平靜,但由於492億歐元的現場和計劃銷售渠道將推動2015年下半年的交易量,NAMA和意大利銀行將成為主要供應商。



According to Cushman & Wakefield's European Real Estate Loan Sales Market Report, there was €12.2 billion of closed European commercial real estate loan and real estate owned transactions in Q1 2015.

There has been a spreading of activity throughout Europe which has been characterized by sales in Italy.  As anticipated, there has been a noticeable increase in activity in Italy at the start of 2015 with over €1 billion of closed transactions being recorded. To put this into perspective, this total is over 2.5x the volume recorded in the entirety of 2014 and makes Italy the third most active European country by closed transactions in Q1, 2015.

After a record-breaking 2014, last quarter's overall performance represented a decrease of 49% on the totals for both Q1 2014 and Q4 2014.  However, this reiterates the staggering level of activity witnessed in 2014 which was bolstered by the deleveraging of IBRC, NAMA and RBS.

A more telling statistic is that the Q1 2015 figure is around 53% of the total volume transacted in the entirety of 2012, highlighting how significantly the European CRE loan and REO sales market has evolved over the past three to four years.  Only €23.2 billion of transactions were completed in 2012 with virtually no sales recorded outside of the four key markets of the UK, Ireland, Spain and Germany and only seven 'mega-deals' (those deals with a face value of over €1 billion) completed.  Not only has the level of activity increased dramatically since then but the geography and type of product being brought to the market has noticeably expanded.

Despite the UK and Ireland together accounting for almost two thirds of Q1 2015 sales, closed volumes reduced by 47% and 68% respectively when compared to the figures for Q4 2014.  Again, this is a better reflection of 2014 than on the year ahead.  As predicted in Cushman & Wakefield's Q4 2014 European Real Estate Loan Sales Market report, this reduction has been the result of many UK and Irish banks and asset management agencies, such as IBRC, RBS and Lloyds Banking Group, completing the majority of their deleveraging in 2014.  Although there are signs of slowing activity in these leading markets, several key vendors, including NAMA, have a mountain of non-core real estate exposure still to be worked-out.

There were several large transactions in Q1 2015 which helped boost the closed volume, including Permanent TSB which completed the sale of its Capital Home Loans servicing platform and the €3.5 billion of associated residential loans to Cerberus.  In addition, in its drive to cover its capital shortfall following the results of the AQR last October, it also finalized the disposal of its €1 billion and €500 million Irish CRE loan portfolios (dubbed Project Leinster and Project Munster respectively) to Haybell Limited, a newly formed entity believed to be funded by Deutsche Bank and Apollo.

Cushman & Wakefield's Head of EMEA Loan Sales, Federico Montero said, "Although completed transaction volumes are slightly down on those recorded for 2014, there are plenty of large transactions being prepared for the market which will boost activity in the second half of the year and catch the eyes of awaiting investors.  As predicted, we have already seen a noticeable uplift in the number of sales coming from Italy, which was the third most active European country in the first quarter."

Frank Nickel, Executive Chairman of Cushman & Wakefield's EMEA Corporate Finance group also commented, "Vendors in the UK and Ireland have undoubtedly led the way in the deleveraging cycle since the crash of the market, setting an example to banks and asset management agencies throughout Europe and even globally.  As many now approach the completion of their workout strategies, the likes of Spain and Italy have the opportunity to step up to the plate and grab the attention of a wealth of investor interest flooding in from the US."

From its knowledge of key vendors and expected market trends, Cushman & Wakefield anticipates closed sales for 2015 will be in the region of €60-€70 billion.

Further highlights from the report include:

  • There has been a notable increase in the number of secondary sales coming to market as early investors in non-performing loans (NPLs) start to 'cash in' on worked-out portfolios;
  • With fewer 'mega-deals' completed in Q1 2015, the top five investors accounted for 69% of the closed sales volume in the first quarter;
  • Permanent TSB was by far the most active vendor in the market, alone accounting for 41% of all completed transactions in its effort to cover the capital shortfall highlighted by the AQR last October;
  • Despite the relatively quiet start to the year, volumes in the second half of 2015 will be boosted by the €49.2bn pipeline of live and planned sales, with NAMA and the Italian banks set to be key vendors.

 
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