是否適合投資曼谷房地產市場?
Is It the Right Time to Invest in Bangkok Real Estate Market?
原文 譯文

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根據泰國媒體8月15日的報導,就在過去一周,泰國財政部財產評估副總幹事在接受采訪時表示,財政部已完成四年一次的土地價格評估,共計3340萬土地。泰國和全國平均國內土地價格上漲了8.3%。

其中,曼谷的土地價格上漲幅度最大,為8%至10%。最昂貴的地區位於曼谷的Ratchadamri,Chit Lom和Siam區。價格從900,000泰銖/平方英尺上漲到100萬泰銖/平方英尺。除了郊區外,大部分輕軌交通地區都有土地價格上漲,如農樂。

有關官員表示,隨著2020年1月1日新土地稅法的實施,預計全國土地價格將比去年同期上漲10-15%。首都曼谷繼續在土地價格方面領先全國,而核心商業區的土地價格卻出現了驚人的增長,特別是在軌道上,這一趨勢呈直線上升趨勢。

為什麼泰國房地產價格持續飆升?

首先,就泰國而言,我們不能忽視的一點是,現階段它仍然是一個發展中國家。顧名思義,所謂的“發展”正在發展,有增長的空間,來自各個方面:經濟,人口,進出口貿易,旅遊......當然,它還包括房地產。

其次,泰國是一個私有土地所有權國家。私有土地意味著很難拆除和重新安置建築物。只要土地所有者不同意,即使土地被廢棄,土地也不能用於其他目的。因此,可以想像土地的稀缺性。土地供應短缺是泰國房價上漲的重要原因。

一些數據顯示,新房開發量在2016年高峰後有所下降。根據土地評估,土地價格比往年增加了約5%-10%,現在已達到10%-30%。開發商徵地成本的增加是影響新房價格的直接因素。

第三,地鐵沿線的房價上漲。這是毋庸置疑的。鐵路軌道是任何國際大都市中非常重要的公共交通工具,是人們最依賴旅行的交通工具。在中國的二三線城市,情況仍然如此,更不用說曼谷這個“亞洲封鎖城市”。

泰國首都曼谷是最擁擠的城市,捷運線路的日常交通量不亞於中國一線城市。因此,圍繞軌道的土地和房地產價格也是必然趨勢。

人口紅利真能支持泰國房地產市場嗎?

除了泰國當地人的正常成長,事實上,我們不能忽視泰國的外國人。在這些人中,有大型企業帶來的高收入人群,在泰國從事商業活動的商人,在泰國享受國際醫療資源的老年人,以及在泰國接受國際教育的兒童。

因此,泰國的人口實際上更加多元化,這些多元化的人有不同的目的,但他們有共同的需求,即住房。

數據顯示,自2015年以來,曼谷中端物業30平方米公寓的月租金從前幾年的5000-9000泰銖上漲至12,000-15,000泰銖。在高端住宅市場,最低租金從30,000泰銖開始,高租金達到50,000-60,000泰銖。此外,周邊地區(如湄公河以外的地區)的住房租金也在上漲。

除了跟上土地價格和房價上漲的步伐外,還有另一個因素導致租金上漲,即多年來租賃市場的穩定性,甚至租賃市場的增長。因此,那些早年在泰國投資房地產的人必須享受“房東”和“房東”的樂趣,並且很容易計算逐年上漲的租金。

房價上漲。曼谷有沒有值得物業價值的空間?

對於房地產投資,我們不能說它沒有問題,但至少它比許多其他金融產品更強大。畢竟,房地產不僅是一種商品,而且是一種長期的財產保有者,也具有租賃和生活的多功能。

根據整個國家的經濟情況,只要國家穩定,經濟不斷發展,基礎設施完善,當地房地產自然不會惡化。此外,近年來,泰國經濟不僅價值增長,而且增長越來越快。

但就房地產增值空間而言,我們無法避免先到先得的問題。首先必須首先獲得,並且猶豫不決經常錯過機會。雖然我們只看到了泰國土地價格上漲中的一個詞 - “崛起”,但我們認為這是因為我們的大部分注意力集中在“CBD”這個詞上,但並不認為CBD的十年前的今天仍然是郊區?!現在在價格上漲的地區,也許五年前,沒有軌道線到達?!

即使數據顯示,除了明顯增加的地區外,曼谷部分地區的土地價格與四年前相比仍然沒有變化,甚至有些地區相比略有下降。但這並不意味著這些地區“荒蕪無人”。一些開發商已經選擇了他們的位置很長一段時間,低地價是一個方面。但如果沒有利潤空間,開發商就不會隨意投入成本。

例如:Umini曼谷國際公寓是uoolu.com上最新的超低總價格項目,在第一階段開幕時在兩座建築物中擁有400套公寓。它被當地人搶走了兩天。第二階段目前正在銷售中,平均每天有10組客戶訪問並且不斷降級。

對於這個地區,也許當地人比外國人更了解自己的價值,但在項目啟動後,我們還參觀了項目附近的“巧克力城”。事實上,它也是許多外國遊客喜歡去的“旅遊景點”。

該項目位於主要道路的一側,橫跨馬路,距離項目1公里,蓮花超市,Max Valu超市,Phayathai國際連鎖醫院和學校都可用。滿足人們的日常需求不是問題。此外,曼谷目前的軌道交通規劃已擴展到該地區。粉紅色和棕色線分別連接曼谷的Langman機場和Suvarnabhum機場。同時,它們符合BTS和MTT。去市中心很方便。

此外,該地區至少有15個泰國本地和國際工廠基地。大量的工薪階層不可能在中心區找到出租房,而附近現有公寓的供應非常有限。所有這些都證明了為什麼Umini International Apartment如此受當地人歡迎。

曼谷2019年第二季度的公寓市場數據顯示,曼谷公寓的平均價格已達到33,000元/平方米,而Umini Bangkok的國際公寓目前的公路價格為12,000元/平方米,總價格為25萬元人民幣。優質空間是中心區域的兩倍多。在相同的租金收入下,可以獲得月末的利潤。滋潤空間自然更高。目前,在兩條軌道線尚未開通的情況下仍然是價格。到公共交通運輸時,土地價格上漲的收入一目了然。

最後,總而言之,在曼谷,泰國祇會使用越來越少的土地用於住房或公寓開發,但隨著基礎設施的改善,城市交通將變得越來越方便,區域土地價格只會越來越高。如果我們錯過了“中心區”的發展年代,我們也可以開闊眼界。我們不熟悉的一些事情,但已經在本地區變暖,可能是我們一直在尋找的“利潤空間”。

Just over the past week, according to Thai media reports on August 15, the Deputy Director-General of Property Assessment of the Thai Ministry of Finance said in an interview that the Ministry of Finance had completed a quadrennial land price assessment of 33.4 million lands in Thailand, and the average domestic land price had risen by 8.3% nationwide.

Among them, Bangkok's land price has risen most notably by 8% to 10%. The most expensive areas are located in Ratchadamri, Chit Lom and Siam districts of Bangkok. The price has risen from 900,000 baht/square wa to 1 million baht/square wa. Apart from the suburbs, most of the light rail transit areas have seen land prices rise, such as Nong Chok.

Officials said that with the implementation of the new land tax law on January 1, 2020, the national land price is expected to rise by 10-15% compared with the same period last year. Bangkok, the capital, continues to lead the country in land prices, while the core business district has witnessed an alarming increase in land prices, especially around the track, which is showing a straight upward trend.

Why real estate price in Thailand keeps soaring?

First of all, as far as Thailand is concerned, one thing we cannot ignore is that it is still a developing country at this stage. The so-called "development", as its name implies, is developing, there is room for growth, which comes from all aspects: economy, population, import and export trade, tourism... Of course, it also includes real estate.

Secondly, Thailand is a private land ownership country. Private ownership of land means that it is difficult to demolish and relocate the buildings on it. As long as the owner of the land disagrees, the land cannot be used for other purposes even if it is abandoned. Therefore, the scarcity of land can be imagined. The shortage of land supply is an important reason for the rise of house prices in Thailand.

Some data show that the development volume of new housing is declining after the peak in 2016. According to land assessment, land price has increased by about 5%-10% in previous years, and now it has reached 10%-30%. The increase of land acquisition cost of developers is the direct factor affecting the price of new housing.

Thirdly, property prices along the subway have risen. This is beyond doubt. Rail track is a very important public transport in any international metropolis, and it is the most travel-dependent means of transport for people. This is still true in the second and third tier cities in China, not to mention Bangkok, the "Asian blockade city".

Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, is the most crowded city, and the daily traffic carried by MRT lines is no less than that of the first-tier cities in China. Therefore, the price of land and real estate around the track is also an inevitable trend.

Can demographic dividends really support the Thai property market?

In addition to the normal growth of Thai local people, in fact, we cannot ignore the foreigners in Thailand. Among these people, there are high-income people brought by major enterprises, businessmen engaged in business activities in Thailand, elderly people who enjoy international medical resources in Thailand, and children who receive international education in Thailand.

Therefore, the population of Thailand is actually more diversified, these diversified people come with different purposes, but they have a common demand, that is, housing.

Data show that since 2015, the monthly rent of a 30-square-meter apartment in Bangkok's mid-end property has risen from 5000-9000 baht in previous years to 12,000-15,000 baht. In the high-end residential market, the minimum rent starts from 30,000 baht, and the high rent reaches 50,000-60,000 baht. In addition, housing rents in peripheral areas, such as those outside the Mekong River, are also rising.

Apart from keeping pace with the rising land prices and house prices, there is another factor that contributes to the rising rent rate, namely, the stability of the rental market over the years and even the growth of the rental market. Therefore, those who invested in real estate in Thailand in the early years must be enjoying the pleasure of "landlord" and "landlady" at the moment, and are comfortable counting the rising rent year by year.

House prices have risen. Is there any room for the value of properties to appreciate in Bangkok?

For real estate investment, we can't say it's all right, but at least it's more robust than many other financial products. After all, real estate is not only a commodity, but also a long-term holder of property, but also has the multi-function of renting and living.

Depending on the economy of the whole country, as long as the country is stable, the economy is rising and the infrastructure is perfect, the local real estate will naturally not be worse. Moreover, in recent years, Thailand's economy is not only increasing in value, but also growing faster and faster.

But in terms of real estate value-added space, we cannot avoid a first-come-first-get problem. First-start must be first-earned, and hesitant often miss the opportunity. Although we have seen only one word from the increase of land prices in Thailand -- "rise", we’ve felt that it was because most of our attention was focused on the word "CBD", but did not think that the CBD of today was still suburbs ten years ago?! Now in the region of rising prices, maybe five years ago, there was no track line to arrive?!

Even the data show that apart from the areas with obvious increases, land prices in some parts of Bangkok remain unchanged from those four years ago, and even some areas have slightly declined in comparison. But it does not mean that these areas are "deserted and uninhabited". Some developers have already chosen their location for a long time, and the low land price is one aspect. But if there is no profit space, developers will not invest in the cost casually.

 

For example: Umini Bangkok International Apartment, the latest ultra-low total price project on uoolu.com, has 400 apartments in two buildings at the opening of the first phase. It has been snatched up by the local people for two days. The second phase is currently on sale, with an average of 10 groups of customers visiting each day and continuously degrading.

For this area, maybe the local people know their own value better than the foreigners, but after the project was launched, we’ve also visited the "chocolate ville" near the project. In fact, it is also the "tourist attraction" that many foreign tourists like to go to.

The project is located on the side of the main road, across the road, within 1 km of the project, Lotus Supermarket, Max Valu Supermarket, Phayathai International Chain Hospital and schools are all available. It is not a problem to meet people's daily needs. Moreover, Bangkok's current rail transit planning has extended to the region. Pink and brown lines connect Bangkok's Langman Airport and Suvarnabhum Airport, respectively. At the same time, they are in line with BTS and MTT. It is very convenient to go to the urban center.

In addition, at least 15 Thai local and international factory bases are found throughout the area. It is impossible for a large number of wage earners to find rental houses in the central area, and the supply of existing apartments in the vicinity is very limited. All these prove why Umini International Apartment is so popular with local people.

Bangkok's apartment market data report for the second quarter of 2019 shows that the average price of apartments in Bangkok has reached RMB 33,000/m2, while Umini Bangkok's International Apartments currently have road prices of RMB 12,000/m2, with a total price of RMB 250,000. The premium space is more than double that of the central area. Under the same rental income, the profits at the end of the month can be obtained. The moistening space is naturally higher. At present, this is still the price under the condition that the two track lines have not been opened. By the time the public transport is running, the income of land price increase has been clear at a glance.

Finally, to sum up, in Bangkok, Thailand will only use less and less land for housing or apartment development, but with the improvement of infrastructure, urban transportation will become more and more convenient, and regional land prices will only become higher and higher. If we miss the years of development of the "central area", we may as well broaden our sights. Some of the things that we are not familiar with, but are already warming up in the local area, may be the "profit margin" we have been looking for.

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